Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York
Since the early days of the pandemic, the WNYC/Gothamist newsroom has used data to shape our COVID-19 coverage. We’ve revamped our COVID-19 statistics page to focus on the metrics that matter most during the pandemic’s second year: vaccines, variants and recent trends in New York City.
You can find an archived version of the original layout here. WNYC/Gothamist commends the tremendous effort that Jake Dobkin, Clarisa Diaz and Zach Gottehrer-Cohen put into maintaining this stats page over its first 16 months.
Want different metrics on this page? Please send any questions or comments to SciHealthData@wnyc.org.
Recent TrendsRecent Trends
These charts portray New York City’s primary COVID statistics over the last 90 days. This summer, the vaccine rollout pushed infections, the positivity rate, hospitalizations and deaths to their lowest points since the pandemic lockdown began in March 2020. But after reaching a valley in June, the positivity rate has increased, a rise driven by the delta variant. Deaths remain low, but hospitalizations have creeped upward in recent weeks.
This map shows where coronavirus has recently flourished, as judged by the positivity rate. The positivity rate measures how many tests come back showing an infection. High positivity can give a sense of where the virus is spreading fastest, but it isn’t the same as the infection/transmission rate. A high positivity rate—above 5%—can also signal places that have only enough tests to keep pace with severe cases but not mild cases. As of August 5th, positivity is rising in many parts of the city. The mayor said on August 2nd that the city is no longer using positivity to guide policy decisions.
This map shows COVID-19 hospitalizations over the last 28 days. Severe cases remain rare, though hospitalization rates are higher in parts of the city where fewer people are vaccinated.
Most of New York City’s data is released on a three-day lag. Data for the most recent days is typically provisional. The department revises the data for older dates as new tallies arrive, so numbers for each date may change slightly over time.
VaccinationsVaccinations
Herd immunity occurs when an infectious disease can no longer spread because community protection is high. This target is unknown for COVID-19, but some experts say it could be achieved when 70-85% of a neighborhood, city, state or nation is immune to infection. New York City provides vaccine statistics on the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene website.
New York City’s vaccine campaign started with early hiccups, caused mostly by inclement weather and limited supplies of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. Progress was also hampered by the digital divide and unequal access to the online appointment system for older New Yorkers, whom officials prioritized for the shots. The rollout concentrated in wealthier, less diverse ZIP codes during its early days. Vaccination rates still vary widely among neighborhoods—from just over one-third in parts of Brooklyn to 100% in midtown. Data released by the city show that fully vaccinated New Yorkers made up just 1% of COVID cases and deaths recorded between January and mid-June.
Daily shots skyrocketed toward the end of February, also spurred in part by the authorization of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on February 27th. The number of new takers rose after late March as new eligibility opened up for people older than 50, millennials and then anyone over 16 years old. A similar jump occurred after the vaccines were authorized for adolescents on May 10th.
Demand spiked and then tapered off after each round of eligibility expansion. This pattern is typical with vaccine campaigns. The most eager people rush to get shots, leaving only the hesitant, people lacking access or those without the resources to visit a vaccine site. The federal pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine (April 13th to 23rd) also contributed to a drop-off, despite the cause (atypical blood clots) ultimately being extremely rare. On July 12th, the Food and Drug Administration also linked the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to a small number of cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, a neurological disorder. Like atypical blood clots, Guillain-Barré is extremely rare, with just 100 cases reported out of more than 12 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
National surveys suggested that confidence fell for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine but remained high for the Pfizer and Moderna shots.
After a lull in new vaccinations earlier this summer, the number of people getting their first shot has increased—from less than 8,200 new takers a day on July 10th to around 11,000 on August 4th. Time will tell how cash incentives, mandates and other policy decisions influence vaccination rates.
While city, state and federal officials have provided millions of people with the COVID-19 vaccines, large gaps remain for some key demographics.
On average, 74% of New Yorkers over the age of 55 are fully vaccinated. But that’s still about 15 percentage points lower than rates seen overseas in the U.K. and Israel. Black New Yorkers remain behind, but Hispanic New Yorkers are nearly caught up with regards to their share of the overall population. Kids under 12 years old are ineligible for COVID-19 vaccines.
New York City experienced a high amount of natural exposure during its first and second waves of the coronavirus. This natural immunity combined with defenses provided by the vaccine rollout to drive down cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Natural and vaccine-based immunity is expected to last for months, if not years, based on early studies. But new variants are more likely to evade the natural immunity seen among past recoveries, while vaccine-based shields are more likely to stay intact.
VariantsVariants
Viruses mutate, much like any microorganism or creature with a genome. Coronavirus variants will pose a perpetual threat to unvaccinated people until infection rates are driven to zero.
The Delta variant has dominated in recent weeks, now accounting for 92% of all cases sequenced between July 18th and July 24th. The city has also added the B.1.621 variant to its tracking. It is a Colombian strain considered a variant of interest in Europe.
So far, COVID-19 vaccines are able to neutralize all variants in lab-based studies including the delta variant. Breakthrough infections caused by the variants are expected to be rare among the inoculated, and current evidence shows hospitalizations and deaths are low for people who take a full course of vaccines. But new research suggests that even vaccinated people can transmit the delta variant to others—a finding which prompted the Centers for Disease Control to recommend indoor masking in high-transmission areas.
NYC Pandemic Over TimeNYC Pandemic Over Time
These charts show how cases and hospitalizations evolved throughout every borough and citywide.
COVID-19 Pandemic In New York, New Jersey And ConnecticutCOVID-19 Pandemic In New York, New Jersey And Connecticut
Parts of New York outside of the five boroughs were hit harder by the state’s second wave relative to its first, a pattern that applied to New Jersey and Connecticut, too. Cases and deaths in all three states decreased dramatically as vaccines became widely available, although cases are now resurging. As of August 5th, all Connecticut counties, 20 out of 21 New Jersey counties, and more than 60% of New York counties meet the CDC’s threshold for universal indoor masking.
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