Healey has not yet won the battle to set a firm commitment on reaching 3 percent, however. Starmer’s spokesman said that would come “in the next parliament,” which could stretch as late as 2034. 

A problem delayed

Politicians and defense analysts alike have argued this falls short of what’s needed to underwrite the promises in the SDR.

James Cartlidge, the shadow defense secretary, said: "All of Labour's Strategic Defence Review promises will be taken with a pinch of salt unless they can show there will actually be enough money to pay for them."

The Liberal Democrats’ defense spokesperson, Helen Maguire, warned the review “risks becoming a damp squib."

Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, said it was “surprising” that the U.K. “would increase defense spending a little bit, but then kick the commitment to 3 percent so far down the road.”

The timeline is also significant because of varying assessments as to how quickly Russia could pose a threat to NATO countries after the war in Ukraine ends. While the SDR does not make its own assessment, it notes: “Russia’s war economy, if sustained, will enable it to rebuild its land capabilities more quickly in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine.”

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